Fairfield County, Connecticut
Exposure month June. Assembled from CDC NNDSS, Census population estimates and the published risk index. Every section states whether it was measured.
1.Surveillance snapshot
Measured53.37
Incidence per 100,000
0
Confirmed
503
Probable
942,426
Population
Census denominator
CDC NNDSS 2022-2023, averaged. These counts are a floor: they are what was reported to CDC and carried a county code, not an estimate of infections.
2.Reporting completeness
Measured99.8%
Of this state's cases carry a county code
12
Cases with no county assigned
Most of this state's cases carry a county code, so county comparisons within the state are meaningful.
3.Historical trend
PartialThis county appears in only one of the two years CDC county-coded. Appearing in the data for the first time is a reporting event, not a measured increase, so no county change is computed.
State incidence per 100,000, 2018–2022
A change between years reflects reporting as well as transmission. County-coding coverage moved over this period, so a rise may be a rise in what was recorded.
4.Environmental context
Not availableNo county-resolved environmental layer ships with this build. NOAA climate and USGS land-cover data inform the platform's environmental pages but are not joined to counties here, so this brief does not report an environmental value it cannot source.
5.Seasonal context
MeasuredJune sits at 1.00 on the Ixodes scapularis activity curve, which peaks in June with the nymph stage.
A national curve applied uniformly. Tick phenology shifts with latitude and with the year’s weather; this curve does not.
Observed emergency-department visits for tick bites peaked in May (MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2021;70(17):612–616 (NSSP, ED visits for tick bites per 100k ED visits)):
2017–2019 baseline, emergency departments only (≈71% of US ED visits covered by NSSP by 2019). Most people bitten by ticks never visit an ED, so this is a floor for bite exposure.
6.Modeled risk index
MeasuredModeled, not observed. This is a weighted index over four published components, not a CDC statistic and not a probability that anyone is infected.
7.Top contributing factors
Measured- 1.Seasonal vector activityIxodes scapularis activity curve — June20.0 pts
- 2.Historical incidenceCDC county-coded Lyme surveillance5.3 pts
- 3.Current exposure geographyCDC county-coded Lyme surveillance5.3 pts
8.Relevant evidence
PartialEvidence retrieval runs in the ML service and requires a session. Open the Evidence section for cited findings; each carries its DOI and a source-strength rating, and uncited reference text is labelled as such.
Open cited evidence →9.What this brief does not establish
Measured- Whether any individual has Lyme disease. The index describes a place, a month and a symptom pattern, not a person.
- That reported cases equal actual cases. CDC surveillance counts what was reported and county-coded; the figures here are floors.
- That a county with no data has no risk. Absence of county coding is absence of measurement.
- That a change between 2022 and 2023 reflects a change in transmission. Reporting practice, testing, and county-coding coverage all moved over the same period.
- Anything about co-infections, chronic presentations, or treatment response. None of those are in the data behind this brief.
10.Recommended information actions
Measured- Bring the symptom timeline and exposure history in this brief to a clinician; the timeline matters more to diagnosis than any single figure here.
- If tick exposure occurred in the last 30 days, note the date — serology is frequently negative early and a negative test in that window does not rule Lyme out.
- Check the completeness figure before comparing this county against another state's county.
- Use the evidence section's citations directly rather than this summary when discussing findings with a clinician.
Information for clinician review. This brief is not a diagnosis and does not recommend treatment.
Data lineage
| Dataset | Source | Period | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|
| CDC NNDSS Lyme disease, county-coded | data.cdc.gov resource x5j9-wybp | 2022-2023 | Observed case counts, incidence, reporting completeness, and the historical-incidence and exposure-geography components of the index |
| Census Population Estimates | co-est2024-alldata | 2020-2024 vintage | Denominator for every per-100,000 rate in this brief |
| CDC NNDSS Lyme disease, state series | data/processed/lyme_surveillance_2018_2022.json | 2018-2022 | State trend where a county pair is unavailable |
| Ixodes scapularis seasonal activity curve | Published vector phenology, applied nationally | Month of year | Seasonal component of the index |